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Please join the Harriman Institute for a conversation with Distinguished Harriman Guest Speaker Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky. Moderated by Peter Clement and Kimberly Marten.
How are the Russian theory and practice of coercion likely to evolve after the war in Ukraine? Russia entered the war with a coherent framework of “strategic deterrence.” This was far from perfect, but was the most elaborated theory of nuclear, conventional, and informational coercion that the Russian strategic community has ever had. The war offered a reality check of this framework. This talk explores the impact of the war in Ukraine on the evolution of Russian theory and practice of coercion. First, I will discuss the effectiveness (or the lack) of Russia’s use of coercion prior to and during the war with Ukraine, including the prospect of the potential nuclear escalation. Then, I will hypothesize about the possible continuities, transformations and innovations in the Russian deterrence theory and practice in the conventional, nuclear, informational and non-military realms.
