Anthony Broccoli, Rutgers University
"Storm Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern United States in Observations and Models"
In the northeastern United States, many of the strongest coastal impacts from extratropical cyclones (ETCs), such as powerful storm surges and extreme winds, are associated with cyclones that exhibit slow movement, unusual tracks, or exceptional intensity. Examples of extreme ETCs include the Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950, the Perfect Storm of October 1991, and the Superstorm of March 1993. Prevailing characteristics of notable surge-producing events are described using cluster analysis of evolving sea level pressure patterns. The relationship of these events to patterns of large-scale climate variability are also discussed. Because events with severe impacts may occur only once or twice per decade, it is difficult to quantify the associated risks given the limited duration of high-quality observational datasets. Furthermore, storms with even greater impacts than those observed may be possible, particularly in a warming climate. In the context of tropical cyclones, Lin and Emanuel (2016) have used the metaphor “grey swans” to refer to high-impact events that have not been observed but may be physically possible. One method for analyzing “grey swans” is to generate a larger sample of ETCs using a coupled climate model. We use long control simulations from a global climate model (GFDL FLOR) with 50km atmospheric resolution and unchanging atmospheric composition to examine some of the climatological features of these extreme ETC events.
Host: Ding Ma <
[email protected]>
